Rough sleeping set to rise by three quarters in next decade

Nearly 160,000 households, estimated at just under a quarter of a million people, are experiencing the worst forms of homelessness across Britain, with rough sleeping forecast to rise by 76% in the next decade unless the governments in Westminster, Scotland and Wales take long-term action to tackle it. 

This is according to new expert analysis conducted for Crisis by Heriot-Watt University providing the most complete picture to-date of the worst forms of homelessness, including rough sleeping and sofa surfing, as well as 25-year forecasts for each category across England, Wales and Scotland. 

Launched as part of Crisis’s 50th anniversary year and drawing on the most up-to-date sources available.

Looking at England, Scotland and Wales, Crisis said “there is a remarkable degree of difference between the future scale and shape of core homelessness in the three countries”:

• England shows an initial pause followed by an accelerating increase, which is most dramatic at the end of the forecast period.
• Wales shows a sharper initial increase, with a pause after 2021, then a further medium rate of increase.
• Scotland, by contrast, shows an initial downward trajectory until 2016, then a gradual increase, to the end of the period.

In response to the report’s findings, Crisis is calling on the public to join its Everybody In campaign – a national movement for permanent change aimed at ending the worst forms of homelessness once and for all.  

Jon Sparkes, Chief Executive of Crisis, said: 

“This year, Crisis marks its 50th anniversary but that’s little cause for celebration. We still exist because homelessness still exists, and today’s report makes it only too clear that, unless we take action as a society, the problem is only going to get worse with every year that passes. That means more people sleeping on our streets, in doorways or bus shelters, on the sofas of friends or family, or getting by in hostels and B&Bs. In order to tackle this, we need to first understand the scale of the problem.

“Regardless of what happens in people’s lives, whatever difficulties they face or choices they make, no one should ever have to face homelessness. With the right support at the right time, it doesn’t need to be inevitable. There are solutions, and we’re determined to find them and make them a reality.

“Yet we can’t do this alone, which is why we’re calling on the public to back our Everybody In campaign and help us build a movement for change. Together we can find the answers, and make sure those in power listen to them.”

Everybody In aims to bring people together to change opinions, raise awareness and ultimately end homelessness for good, and includes a library of first-hand accounts showing the reality of homelessness in Britain.

Alongside this, Crisis will be working towards a national plan to end the worst forms of homelessness once and for all, bringing together everything needed to make this happen, including consultations in all three nations and a large scale programme of research.

Today’s report is the first of two parts, with the second – due for publication in the Autumn – to examine ‘wider homelessness’, including people at risk of homelessness or those who have already experienced it, such as households that have been served an eviction notice and those in other forms of temporary accommodation.